🐾3Dogs NexusStructured Decision Intelligence
Case studies

Real decisions. Shown work. Scored against reality.

We run actual questions through 3Dogs Nexus, put our reasoning on the table, and — where we can — get graded against the outcome. Here’s where that lives.

2008 crisis · head-to-head vs. Warren Buffett

What if Lehman Brothers had "sold it all"? The Margin Call decision, run through 40+ AIs

Two 2008 Lehman decisions, handed to 3Dogs. Should an investor have saved it? Buffett passed — and 3Dogs matched him with a 10-to-1 "walk away" that named Repo 105 and the 30-to-1 leverage. Could a Margin Call fire-sale have worked? On that unknowable counterfactual it stayed honestly uncertain. Calibration, not hindsight.

Buffett3Dogs matched: REJECT
CounterfactualLOW confidence · 5–3 split
Warren Buffett head-to-headMargin Call counterfactualRepo 105 · 30:1 leverage
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Investigation · blind test on a real fraud

The half-million-email test: can AI find the fraud buried in 517,401 emails?

We handed 3Dogs the real Enron executive email archive with no hint of what to look for. It read 45,320 emails, surfaced the LJM, Raptor and Chewco off-books schemes and the overridden warnings from Kaminski and Watkins, and called for a formal investigation — in 2h 28m, versus roughly 4.5 years for the real investigation. The report priced the human review of this volume at $2–5 million.

Read in full45,320 emails
3Dogs2h 28m · read in full
Early case assessment517,401-email corpusvs. $2–5M forensic review
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Document-scale · 8 / 8 recall

The 10,000-page test: can any AI actually do due diligence?

We built a 100-document acquisition data room, hid eight deal-killers inside, and put it to every option a buyer really has. Consumer AIs can’t even ingest it. A firm bills six weeks and five figures. The new “AI board” tools aren’t built for it. 3Dogs read all 10,000 pages, found all 8 buried risks, and returned a decisive RENEGOTIATE — in 28 minutes.

Buried risks8 / 8 found
Runtime28m 04s
M&A due diligence100 docs · ~10,000 pagesvs. AI, firms & rivals
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Adversarial test · reviewed by a rival AI

Google’s Gemini tried to break the system — then wrote the review

Gemini played a hostile client: thin data, a napkin $3.5M estimate, critical context withheld on purpose. 3Dogs refused to analyze until three rounds of questioning — then Gemini published its verdict, word for word: “a hostile board member” producing “more rigor in 35 minutes than most human teams could produce in a week of meetings.”

Geminihostile client
3Dogs1,127 calls · 35m 40s
SaaS rewrite · $4M runway17 modelsUnedited AI review
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Head-to-head · falsifiable

Gemini vs. 3Dogs: the Lincoln County wildfire forecast

Same question to both. Google Gemini answered in seconds — and did it well. 3Dogs answered in 4 minutes with a probability spread, a 9-analyst debate, graded evidence, and a date to be scored on. The right tool depends on who’s asking.

Gemini~seconds
3Dogs4m 20s
PredictionPublic safety / planningResolves Oct 1, 2026
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Inside deep mode · full run log

18 minutes, two full ensembles, one decisive call

We forced deep mode on a hospital capital-vs-contract decision and published everything: four adaptive research passes, a real clarification loop, six independently-composed debate panels, a live 429 failover, and a moment where the system caught a flaw in its own report.

Ensembles6 panels
Runtime18m 02s
Capital investmentHealthcareDeep mode — forced
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Four decisions · zero hindsight

3Dogs vs. the war college vs. history

We fed 3Dogs four of the most-taught command decisions in military history — Cuba 1962, Inchon 1950, Gettysburg 1863, Task Force Smith 1950 — using only what the commander knew at the time. Three times it matched the historical decision. Once it disagreed with the commander and matched the war college's own century-old critique instead.

Matched3 of 4
Diverged1 of 4
Military strategyHistorical calibration test4 full runs
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More on the way.Hiring calls, market entries, build-vs-buy, capital projects — real decisions, same treatment. Growing from here.

Why we publish these

Anyone can sound confident. Calibration is the only edge that compounds — so we show the reasoning, surface the disagreement, and put an expiration date on our forecasts. If we’re going to claim a better process, the honest thing is to let you watch it work and check it against what actually happened.